Vicious Politics

I was very bad in office politics. I tend to underestimate the dishonesty and cunningness of people to achieve their goals, and miss the long-term consequences of their moves and positioning. The tactics of the Hillary Clinton campaign in the on-going 2008 Primary elections, are giving me a chilling picture of how politics can be played with devastating results. After their unexpected loss in Iowa, the Clinton camp made a change in their strategy which I could not figure out. They made some statements insulting the black heritage of Barack Obama. To me, it looked like a stupid move, especially with the election coming in South Carolina where over 50% of the population is blacks. Guess what happened? The resulting uproar by the Afro Americans, put the limelight on the ‘blackness’ of Obama. In a quick few days, he became a ‘black candidate’, not the messiah of unity and change where race did not matter. The whites, who were mesmerized by the oratory of Obama, started to wake up and look Obama as an Afro American. The result? His popularity among the whites in South Carolina plummeted by 50% in one week! Obama may still win South Carolina. But that win will be attributed to blacks - further validating that he is the candidate of the blacks. Despite of the strides in racial equality, the whites and Latinos in this country are not open to electing a black person as their leader. Obama is done for.

(My prediction is that it will be a Hillary versus Romney election, with Romney winning. Democrats have done it again!)

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!

I have come to the realization that there are some people who consistently mess up good opportunities in their lives, and then justify it as bad luck or the fault of others. I am not talking about the unfortunate people who fail due to bad circumstances, financial and physical handicaps, etc. The people I describe have the capability to perform well, and, in fact, do very well occasionally. But they have the frustrating habit of doing some thing amazingly stupid when things are going so well for them, and losing everything. The Indian cricket team is a good example. The Indian team is stacked with talented players who have played brilliantly in many matches. But they just fall apart at crucial stages of matches when the result counts a lot. Few days ago, they lost a chance to stop Australia’s streak of 15 consecutive test match wins, by losing three wickets in the final minutes of the match! In USA, we have the Democratic Party who also exhibits this frustrating trait. In 2000, the Democrats failed to retain the office of the President after eight years of prosperity under President Bill Clinton. Worrying about the Lewinsky scandal, Al Gore kept away the still popular President Bill Clinton from campagining for him, and paid the price. In 2004, the Democrats shoved aside bold and aggressive candidates like Howard Dean and John Edwards, and chose a timid John Kerry, who was too decent to respond in kind to the ugly tactics of the Bush campaign managed by Karl Rove. Now, in 2008, people in USA are sick and tired of the last seven years of the Republican Administration, and are ready to elect almost anybody from the Democratic Party as the next President. So, what do the Democrats do? They are moving toward chosing Hillary Clinton, the most polarizing of the three Democratic candidates for the nomination (Barack Obama and John Edwards being the other two). Meanwhile, the scrupless ‘take no prisoners’ campaign style of Clintons (both Hillary and husband Bill Clinton) is doing havoc to the unity of the Democrats. Their careless remarks about Barack Obama, have brought the dreaded race issue to the front, and have now broken the guaranteed support of the black population for the Democratic Party. In a recent primary election in Michigan, although Hillary Clinton was the only candidate in the ballot, 40% of the votes were for “Uncommitted” as protest against her candidacy! At best, Hillary gets only 50% the votes of the males of the Democrats. She attracts very few Independents (people who have not registered to either Democratic or Republican party), who comprise about 30% of the electorate and determine the final outcome of the Presidential election. She is so disliked by the Republicans that they are going to come out in unison to see her defeated-- while many Democrats (like me, possibly), may stay home disgusted with her campaign tactics (This will also bring down the other Democratic candidates who run along with her for the Congress). The ‘coup de grace’ will be the New York mayor Michael Bloomberg entering the race, seeing an opportunity with weak Democratic and Republican candidates. That will a drain a lot of votes which normally should go for the Democrats, and let the Republican candidate sneak thru to victory. I see a disaster coming, and the Democrats once again ‘snatching defeat from the jaws of victory’!

Life is not fair!

I am sad to hear the plight of former Olympic star Marion Jones who is sentenced to jail for lying about her use of performance enhancing drugs. She had to give back all the five medals she won at the 2000 Sydney Olympics, and she is flat broke. The ironic part is that many of the super athletes of her generation and before, had used similar drugs, and nobody caught them. They got fame and fortune, and a place in the history books. Sprinter Florence Griffith Joyner (‘Flo Jo’) is a classic example. She was so muscular that you could see bulging muscles in places you never thought one could have! She shattered the women’s world records for 100 meters and 200 meters in 1988, and nobody has ever come close to breaking them since. It was easier in those days to avoid drug detention because the tests were not that sophisticated, and one could ‘prepare’ to pass the tests. Does anyone remember the frighteningly muscular Chinese women swimmers in the 1988 Olympics? (‘Flo’ retired at her peak, four months after random tests were announced!). Jones also would have escaped detection if not for an internal fight between her trainer and drug provider, which ended up one snitching on the other. She was simply unlucky to be caught in the middle. The sad part is that Marion Jones was such a gifted athlete that she really did not need this ‘extra help’ to win medals. She probably took it as an 'insurance' to get all the five medals in the Olympics. Look where she is now. Life is not fair.

The hidden racism in USA

I am disappointed and rather angry about stunning loss of Barack Obama in the New Hampshire Primary election today. Every single poll (taken until this morning) showed Obama winning. Many predicted a double-digit victory margin. But still Hillary Clinton won. What happened? None of the pundits in the MSM have a clear explanation for it. Some reasons suggested like Hilary crying yesterday, doing well in the Saturday debate, etc do not make much sense to me. How can all the polls be so wrong? I have a better explanation for this. It is the notorious ‘Bradley effect’ which made the polls go so wrong. This was named after the black mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, who lost the election for California governership to a white person, after polls showing him leading 9 to 22 points. The black candidates won the mayoral races in Chicago and New York by very narrow margins despite the polls showing them with leads in double digits. This phenomenon is attributed to the reluctance of the white people to tell the pollsters that they are going to vote against a black candidate. I am confident that this is what happened to Obama in New Hampshire. People just brushed off the pollsters there with a ‘Yeah, yeah, I am for Obama’ with no intention of voting for him. Of course, this raises the question about the Obama win Iowa, a state with 96% white people, correctly predicted by the polls. The answer is that Iowa Caucus was an ‘open’ event, where voters had to stand in public in groups for each candidate, to be counted. There were no private voting booths where they could exercise their racism! So, most of these ‘tell and switch’ people might have stayed home in Iowa. (Some might have even voted for Obama to create a good impression to their neighbors!) As a result, the Iowa polls were fairly accurate.
In summary, being black is still is a big factor in this election, and it is quite unlikely that Obama will win the nomination. I am so disappointed!

Worrying for Obama

Looks like Senator Barack Obama is going to win the New Hampshire Primary election also, after his stunning victory in Iowa. If that happens, he is certain to win the next election in South Carolina also. The reason? – Over 50% of the electorate in S. Carolina is Blacks who will support him (They will not want to be caught on the wrong side of history having voted for the ‘white lady’!). That will finish off Hilary Clinton’s challenge for the nomination (it is almost impossible to make a ‘come back’ after three high profile defeats in a row). As the Democratic candidate for Presidency, Obama would blow away the Republican opposition, whoever it may be. This means that Obama will be sworn in as the new President of USA in January 2009! I am so looking forward to that day. But I am worried that someone will resort to the only way to stop Obama now – by violence. With so many crazies with guns freely moving around in this country, this is quite possible. (I understand the main reason Colin Powell (a black general) did not run for Presidency in 2000 was that his wife was so much against him risking his life!). I am worried. (My wife does not call me a 'worrier' for no reason!)

(By the way, Obama’s Iowa victory speech was a classic – the best I have ever heard ‘live’!).

Hoping for Obama

I am rooting for Barack Obama to win the nomination of Democratic Party, and win the 2008 Presidential election. As a Democrat, I see two candidates who have a real chance of getting the nomination and winning the Presidency. They are Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama. In the beginning, I admired Hilary Clinton for her excellent performance in the debates. But over time, I have become convinced that Barack Obama is the right one for this country. What I admire most about him is that he has managed to transcend himself to a level above the other politicians by being more genuine and sincere. The 'sleaze' factor, which is associated with the politicians, does not apply to him. He has stuck to his message of ‘Time for Change’ without tweaking it to the current events. This is in sharp contrast to Hilary who first campaigned on her experience to protect USA, and now its is experience for ‘change’, as it became clear that the voters do not rate security as high as the need for a change. Senator Obama is a well-educated man who appreciates the goals and principles of the U.S. Constitution, and has thought through the many issues facing this country. His answers to questions are to the point, in contrast to the ‘cover all bases’ type of answers Hilary Clinton is notorious for. Obama was called ‘naïve’ for saying that he is willing to talk with Iranian Prime Minister to understand their viewpoint better. But I feel that is exactly what is needed for USA at this moment. The ‘my way or the highway’ foreign policy of this country has brought us nothing but the hatred of the rest of the world. The ability to work with the opposition is needed in the domestic front also, with U.S. Congress split almost fifty-fifty between Democrats and Republicans. By electing a black person with some background to the third world, we will be sending a message of reconciliation to the rest of the world. It is going to electrify international politics. Obama is the President USA needs at this critical time, just like Roosevelt was for the Depression days. I pray Americans will not ‘blow this chance’ like they did in 2000!

P.S. The Iowa caucus will begin in a few hours. I am so excited to see that Obama is leading in the polls. I hope that there is no ‘Bradley factor’ here (tendency of the people to tell the pollster that they will vote for a black person while planning otherwise!). If Obama wins, there is no stopping. He is going to win the whole thing!