Betting on the future

I hear that at an Internet site, the betting is over 60% for Barrack Obama to win the Presidency of USA, with John Mc Cain trailing at 36%. Statisticians give a lot of credibility to such betting by the public, as it accurately assesses the probability of events. Years ago, there was a proposal by the Defense Dept. to encourage betting on the probability of terrorist attacks in USA, for getting early warnings! It was dropped because almost everyone found it so outrageous.

A well deserved 'Thank You'!

Barrack Osama naming Caroline Kennedy to the Vice President search committee is a surprise to many. Unlike her brother John Kennedy*, Caroline had a kept a very low profile in public until she suddenly came out and endorsed Obama for the Presidency. And, what a boost it was for Obama! Her support could not have come at a better time. It came at the end of South Carolina primary election where the Clintons had made an effort to paint Obama as another black candidate (like Jesse Jackson) supported only by the blacks. Kennedy’s are like royal family in this country. Caroline’s statement that Obama inspires her ‘like people tell me my father inspired them’, validated Obama as a candidate who has a wide appeal to the whites. The subsequent publicity, and the appearances of Caroline and Senator Kennedy at Obama campaign rallies managed to stop Hillary Clinton’s momentum for the Super Tuesday. The rest is now history. In summary, Barrack Obama owes a lot to Caroline Kennedy for winning the nomination. He choosing her for the VP search committee is his show of appreciation. (I am sure Caroline will have the pick of some choice spots in the Obama administration when he wins the Presidency – yes, I mean 'when', not 'if')

(By the way, I think if John Kennedy was alive, he would have been a major contender for the VP slot)

Nightmare Ticket!

Hear that Hillary Clinton is open to run as the Vice Presidential candidate under Barrack Obama. While for many, this is a ‘dream ticket’, I think it will turn out to be a nightmare ticket for Obama and the Democratic Party. Taking Clinton as the running mate will immediately brand Obama as a typical politician who will do anything to win an election. He will come across like a phony who did not stick to his inspiring message of change from old politics, and instead went with an established Washington politician. A whole series of Clinton questionable financial dealings, Presidential pardons etc. will be thrown in the open by the Republican Party to keep Obama off his winning course. (During the primaries Hillary Clinton got a free pass on this type of attacks, as Obama was too decent for it. Do not expect the same from the Republicans). The Clintons are so hated by the Republicans, that they will unite and vote for John McCain (who presently is struggling to get the core Republicans support his bid for Presidency). As for the benefit of Hillary bringing in the ‘blue collar whites’ and women to the Obama camp, I feel it is quite exaggerated. In November, most of these Hillary Supporters will vote for Obama anyway, as the alternate is “Mr. McSame” who promises to continue many of Bush’s disastrous policies.

I pray that Obama will not fall for the high pressure tactics of the Clintons, but select someone who can really add value to his ticket.

How Hillary got her groove back!

It looks like the long drawn out Primary elections for the Presidency of USA will be over tomorrow with Barrack Obama winning the nomination of the Democratic Party. Time has finally come for Hillary Clinton to give up her quest. As an Obama supporter, I will be relieved to see her out of the picture. To be frank, Hillary has been getting dangerously strong in the last two months, and would have beaten Obama if the primaries have not run out on her. This was like a soccer match where losing team almost gets back in the game by scoring two spectacular goals in the last minutes. Although there was not much publicity, Hillary has recently trounced Obama in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico. She won them with margins she has never gotten before (that too, when the MSM and political pundits had already declared Obama the ‘presumptive nominee’). There is something going very right with Hillary. What happened? I think the main reason for this transformation is that Hillary finally ‘found her voice’, and it showed. She fired her evil campaign manager, Mark Penn, and stopped triangulating on issues based on the polls supplied by him. She felt comfortable as the fighter for the ‘common people’ (who happens to be mostly blue collar whites, as blacks overwhelmingly support Obama). She banished to the outskirts her short-tempered husband Bill Clinton, who reminded people of sleaze and Monica Lewinsky. Women started to like her better, and they started to see her plight similar to what they experienced at work where a smart young man comes out of nowhere, and takes away their chance. She also became more positive in her campaigns as she stopped attacking Obama directly*, and focused on the issues which matter to the people. Hillary finally got her groove back, and was off running. Thank God it was too late. (I still think Obama would be a better President!)

*Come to think of it, none of Hillary’s attacks at Obama ever worked for her (she had nothing to do with Jeremiah Wright and the ‘elitism’ controversies which damaged Obama). In fact, she managed to antagonize the whole black population by trying to paint Obama as a ‘typical’ black candidate. That cost her dearly. She would have won the whole thing if she managed to hold on to at least 15-20% of the black votes, from her 80% support at the beginning of the campaign!).